Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault Hazard, Northern California

Posted by cdj On October - 22 - 2012
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) advise that the probability occurrence in California of one or more Mw=6.7 or larger earthquakes (the 1994 Northridge earthquake was Mw=6.7) over the next 30 years is 99%. The state’s likelihood of a more powerful earthquake (Mw=7.5 or greater) in the next 30 years is 46%. In Northern California, the most likely source of a Mw=6.7 or larger earthquake is the Hayward-Rogers Creek Fault. The USGS also concluded that 3 Mw=5.0 or greater earthquakes will occur in California every year and a Mw=6.0 or greater will occur every 1.5 years.

Probable Earthquake Hazard - SF Bay

The last significant earthquake event on the Hayward Fault in Northern California was, October 21, 1868 when the area was sparsely populated. The USGS developed a shaking intensity map of the 1868 Hayward earthquake from reliable reports of the event. Today, the Hayward-Rogers Creek Fault has a 31% probability of Mw=6.7 or greater earthquake occurring in next 30 years. Today this strong shaking would occur in a heavily populated and economically developed area of the state.

A variety of sources for personal emergency preparation exist such as this 72hours.org site.

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